Villarreal and Beyond

All things Yellow Submarine and La Liga, in English, from a local.


La Liga Snapshot

La Liga JD30–38 — Writer’s Skeleton
At the Top

For the title: 4 Points between them, and 9 Games Left

Barcelona — 73pts (1st) Real Madrid — 69pts (2nd)
Where we stand: Tale as old as time: Barcelona and Real Madrid are fighting for the title. With Atletico out of the race early on, perhaps earlier than anticipated, Flick and Arbeloa will alternate La Liga and Champions League for the next two months. It is expected that the European competition will impact domestic performance, as an early exit by either team could mean more attention paid in the weekend matches. As of Week 29 Barcelona, as it has been the case over the past few years, seems to have the advantage. In the horizon, a Clasico in mid-May which could dictate who wins the trophy, or perhaps even an appetizer to a possible first-ever Real Madrid-Barcelona UCL final.

The in-form player: Joan Garcia has saved 11 goals which, when looking at Expected Goals, Barcelona should have conceded; if the Catalan goalkeeper continues to have the season of his life, he could win the league on his own, and start for Spain over the summer as dessert. This has been an outstanding year for Garcia, as time and time again he continues to save his team in critical moments of the match, as was the case against Rayo Vallecano over the weekend.
JD30 · Sat 4 Apr · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid vs FC Barcelona

Atleti will host Barcelona immediately after the international break; a local win or tie could bring Real Madrid within a victory of first place. The Catalans bent the knee to Simeone in the Spanish Cup, where a 4-0 first leg ended with any chances of a Barca final. Atletico, more worried about the Champions League and having secured top four in La Liga, will be probably be relaxed, but always dangerous. Atleti has an amazing form at home, second only to Barcelona’s.

JD35 · Sun 10 May · Camp Nou
FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid

The Clasico will be played under the umbrella of one of three scenarios. One of them is that Barcelona will have all but secured the title, in which case, and depending on the Champions League, could mean a strange Barca-Madrid match with plenty of non-starters. If both teams are still at arm’s reach from each other, this could be one of the most intense Madrid-Barca in years, especially as both teams, currently on separate sides of the UCL bracket, could possibly make the final. It would mean the first Clasico European final, ever.

JD37 · Sun 17 May · Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán
Sevilla vs Real Madrid

Sevilla will host Real Madrid in the penultimate Liga week, in a match in which the Andaluces better have done their homework to avoid relegation. Sevilla has sacked their manager (again) as of this writing, and will be scrambling to put distance between them and bottom three, currently three points away. For Real, if they make it out of Barcelona alive, this match could still mean something. If both teams are fighting for their respective objectives, this match could be even more intense than most Real Madrid-Sevilla matches already are.


For Europe

Positions 3–7: Champions League, Europa & Conference: The big stage awaits

Villarreal — 58pts (3rd) Atlético — 57pts (4th) Betis — 44pts (5th) Celta — 41pts (6th) Sociedad — 38pts (7th) Getafe — 38pts (8th) Athletic — 38pts (9th)
Where we stand: European money is so much more important in Spain than in countries like England. It may double your revenue budget, it increases your brand, and it puts financial distance between you and other clubs–an extra 30 million Euros for transfers is a huge advantage in the peninsula. This is true across European qualification, but the differences are considerable between UCL, EL and ECL. At the UCL spots (3rd–5th): Atletico and Villarreal seem to have secured top four, but the outstanding performance of Spanish clubs in European competition knockout rounds, paired with disappointing results for Italian and German teams mean that Spain is everything but confirmed a 5th UCL spot. That opens things up for plenty of teams, including Betis, Celta, and even Real Sociedad; a good run from either of them could mean the big stage next season. Additionally, if say Celta win the Europa League but Betis finishes 5th, six teams would qualify for the UCL next season, and Europa League and Conference spots would move one position down the table. In looking at the Europa/Conference (6th–7th): other than Betis and Celta, Real Sociedad, Getafe after their amazing run of form, and Athletic are all on 38pts separated only by goal difference. Osasuna, Espanyol and Valencia are lurking, and a good April month could mean fighting for European spots. Special mention for the Valencianos, who were flirting with disaster not a month ago, and have collected more points already in the second half of the league than they did in the entire first half. Espanyol on the other hand continues its dreadful form: three points out of the past thirty. They were fifth two months ago.

The in-form player: Ferran Jutgla is proving an absolute threat for Celta; six goals and one assist in the past five weeks for this Catalan winger/forward who landed from Club Brugge last season amid some enthusiasm from local fans. He came as a good complement to the attack, but in the past few weeks he has proven to be one of the most in form players in La Liga. If he keeps this up, it could help Borja Iglesias, Iago Aspas and company get to an incredible UCL spot — and a perhaps even a European final.
JD38 · Sun 24 May · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid

With top four firmly secured, Villarreal will host Atletico on the final day of the season. This could be the first time in 20 years that the team from Castellon lands a top-three finish; if Atletico is still involved in UCL knockout rounds through April and May, it will be one of the best chances they have to do so in recent history. As it stands, the Yellow Submarine is third after Atletico lost to Real over the weekend, and with Gerard Moreno and Mikautadze in good form, Atletico will have to focus on both competitions if they want to keep their Rest of the Best title. For Villarreal, this would be the first time in history they make back-to-back Champions League qualification.

JD33 · Wed 22 Apr · Reale Arena
Real Sociedad vs Getafe

Getafe’s visit to San Sebastian will be a six-pointer, and knowing Bordalas, his team will be ready and absolutely comfortable with an away match. The Getafe manager has proven, time and time again, that he is the perfect match for the club; no matter how many times he tries to move on to better things, nobody else seems to understand his style of play, which inevitable lands him back at Getafe, back to not having enough players by end of August to start the season, and back to overperforming. It works for Getafe though, and they currently sit an inexplicable six points away from UCL qualification. Europa or Conference League spots are more achievable for them though, and if the run continues with a good match against Real Sociedad, it could be the turning point for one of the best seasons for Getafe in ages.

JD35 · Sun 10 May · San Mamés
Athletic Club vs Valencia

Valencia is in the form of their season, having taken 18 points from their last 10 games, already more than the first half of the season. In front of them, Athletic Club in the middle of an identity crisis, with manager Ernesto Valverde having announced he will leave at the end of the season, but with the likely return of Nico Williams. The Spanish international missed several weeks with a chronic groin injury (a similar one than what Lamine Yamal or Cole Palmer have) and will want to make up for lost time, bring Athletic back to European places, and on the way there, book a ticket to the World Cup for himself.

JD37 · Sun 17 May · Reale Arena
Real Sociedad vs Valencia

These two teams could play in mid-May for a spot in Europe, and for Real, an inconsistent Valencia away from home will mean a good chance to secure the three points. Expect this match will be one with both fanbases hoping to win, and simultaneously looking at their phones to see what Athletic, Celta, Betis or Getafe are doing.


Avoiding the drop

Relegation — Seven Teams hoping to squirm away and Cazorla’s Great Escape

Rayo — 32pts (14th) Sevilla — 31pts (15th) Alavés — 31pts (16th) Elche — 29pts (17th) Mallorca — 28pts (18th) ↓ Levante — 26pts (19th) ↓ Oviedo — 21pts (20th) ↓
Where we stand: In looking at other top European leagues, Spain is the competition with the most teams still knee-deep in a relegation battle. As of this writing, seven teams are less than six points away from bottom three. At the top of the bunch, Rayo, still hoping for a Europa Conference League final, will try to scrape away the 5-6 points needed to virtually avoid relegation. Sevilla, managerless and with the club in turmoil, will do their best to do the same. Much like the teams above, Alaves and Elche’s April matches will determine how close to the danger zone they are come May. At the bottom three, Mallorca, who inexplicably holds the second top scorer for La Liga (Muriqi with 18 goals) fell into the relegation zone this month–things could get shaky for them and Demichelis. Levante has gathered a few points as of late to get closer than ever to the safe zone; this recent run of form could be a golden opportunity at a time where most had written the Valencia-based team off. At the bottom, the love story is Oviedo and Cazorla; the wins at the Tartiere are hard to come by, and chances are slim to none; but it won’t be for lack of trying. As of right now, they sit eight points away from safety, with 27 points left to fight for.

The in-form player: Vedat Muriqi is having an outstanding season for Mallorca, regardless of the overall team’s performance. A week ago he broke the record for most goals for a Mallorca player in La Liga, surpassing Samuel Eto’o with his 18th goal; and he is currently three goals away from becoming the top scorer for Mallorca in La Liga, ever. The Kosovar striker is a legend in the islands, but it won’t be worth much if he does not keep scoring goals in crucial moments this Spring. Against Elche, he missed a penalty in a match which pushed the Alicantinos past Mallorca and sent them instead to the bottom three. If the striker is in form, he will beat Eto’s record, and save his team.
JD33 · Wed 22 Apr · Estadio Ciutat de València
Levante vs Sevilla

By mid April, Levante could be playing its last card to avoid relegation, and if Sevilla doesn’t do its homework, they could be dragged down by the Granotas. Sevilla will have a new manager by then (likely to be ex-Alaves Luis García Plaza), and will have to avoid a loss if they want to keep relegation fears away. Levante is not strong at home this season, but they have accumulated eight points out of the past 18: there is hope.

JD35 · Sun 10 May
Elche vs Deportivo Alavés

Direct fight between two relegation-threatened sides. Elche started the season like a rocket, with a combination of a great playing style, and a very healthy point tally. In the second half things have soured, and the Alicantinos have won one out of the past ten matches. In front, a renewed Deportivo Alaves thanks to the experience of Quique Sanchez Flores, and three great performances in the first three matches for the new manager. This is likely to be a match which saves one team and sentences the other.

JD38 · Sun 24 May — Final Day
Mallorca vs Real Oviedo · Betis vs Levante · Girona vs Elche · Alavés vs Rayo

It’s check-your-phone time: the last match of the season will see several teams at the bottom play against each other. Mallorca may have a great chance to win three easy points against a likely-relegated Oviedo, and the same could be said for Levante if Betis do their homework ahead of the match. Girona-Elche and Alavés-Rayo could also mean wins for Elche and Rayo if Girona and Alavés are not playing for anything by then. I expect relegation-fighting teams to get plenty of points in the last week.


Pichichi

The top scorer: who will end as Pichichi?

Standings after MD29
# Player Nationality Age Team Goals
1 Kylian Mbappé France 26 Real Madrid 23
2 Vedat Muriqi Kosovo 31 Mallorca 18
3 Ante Budimir Croatia 33 Osasuna 14
3 Lamine Yamal Spain 17 FC Barcelona 14
5 Mikel Oyarzabal Spain 27 Real Sociedad 12
5 Ferran Torres Spain 24 FC Barcelona 12
7 Borja Iglesias Spain 31 RC Celta 11
Where we stand: It all seems set and done, with Mbappé running away with it at 23 goals; however, injuries as of late have meant the Frenchman has neeeded to only play when strictly necessary. If Los Blancos go deep in the UCL final rounds and Barcelona runs away with it in La Liga, it is expected Kylian will only feature in the domestic competition if top scorer is threatened. Behind him, Muriqi and little else; but the Kosovar striker has plenty to fight, and score for. For the Zarra Trophy (top scorer from Spain), Yamal (12), Oyarzabal (12), Ferran Torres (12) and Borja Iglesias (11) are the main candidates to take it home, and potentially put their National Team manager De La Fuente in a bit of a predicament: call the player, or leave the top Spanish La Liga scorer home.


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