Matchday 28
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 13 Mar | Deportivo Alavés | 1–1 | Villarreal CF | ALA: Rafa Marín OG 40′ / VIL: Pépé 90+8′ |
| Sat 14 Mar | Girona FC | 3–0 | Athletic Club | GIR: Hugo Rincón 4′, Ounahi 77′, Echeverri 91′ |
| Sat 14 Mar | Atlético Madrid | 1–0 | Getafe CF | ATL: Nahuel Molina 8′ |
| Sat 14 Mar | Real Oviedo | 1–0 | Valencia CF | OVI: David Costas 30′ |
| Sat 14 Mar | Real Madrid | 4–1 | Elche CF | RMA: Rüdiger 39′, Valverde 44′, Huijsen 66′, Güler 89′ / ELC: Manuel Angel 85′ |
| Sun 15 Mar | Mallorca | 2–1 | Espanyol | MAL: Pablo Torre 65′, Samu Costa 88′ / ESP: Charles Pickel 36′ |
| Sun 15 Mar | FC Barcelona | 5–2 | Sevilla FC | BAR: Raphinha (9′ pen, 21′ pen, 51′), Olmo 38′, Cancelo / SEV: Oso 45+4′, Sow 90+2′ |
| Sun 15 Mar | Real Betis | 1–1 | Celta | BET: Bellerin 49′ / CEL: Jutgla 4′ |
| Sun 15 Mar | Real Sociedad | 3–1 | CA Osasuna | RSO: Oyarzabal 24′, Guedes 28′, 52′ / OSA: Victor Munoz 77′ |
| Mon 16 Mar | Rayo Vallecano | vs | Levante UD | 1PM PT · 3PM CST · 4PM EST |
| Pos | Team | Pts | M | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 70 | 28 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 77 | 28 | +49 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 66 | 28 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 60 | 24 | +36 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 57 | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 47 | 25 | +22 |
| 4 | Villarreal CF | 55 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 33 | +18 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 44 | 28 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 43 | 35 | +8 |
| 6 | Celta | 41 | 28 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 38 | 31 | +7 |
| 7 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 43 | 42 | +1 |
| 8 | Espanyol | 37 | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 35 | 42 | -7 |
| 9 | Getafe | 35 | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 30 | -7 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 35 | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 40 | -10 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 34 | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 33 | 35 | -2 |
| 12 | Girona | 34 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 31 | 43 | -12 |
| 13 | Valencia | 32 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 42 | -12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano* | 31 | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 27 | 33 | -6 |
| 15 | Sevilla | 31 | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 47 | -10 |
| 16 | Mallorca | 28 | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 45 | -12 |
| 17 | Alavés | 28 | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 38 | -12 |
| 18 | Elche CF | 26 | 28 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 45 | -9 |
| 19 | Levante UD* | 22 | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29 | 45 | -16 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 21 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 18 | 44 | -26 |
Relegation zone: Elche, Levante, Real Oviedo. *Rayo vs Levante pending.
| # | Player | Team | G | Apps | G/M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mbappé | Real Madrid | 23 | 23 | 1.00 |
| 2 | Muriqi | Mallorca | 18 | 27 | 0.67 |
| 3 | Yamal | Barcelona | 14 | 24 | 0.58 |
| 4 | Budimir | Osasuna | 13 | 27 | 0.48 |
| 5 | F. Torres | Barcelona | 12 | 25 | 0.48 |
| 5 | Oyarzabal | Real Sociedad | 12 | 25 | 0.48 |
| 7 | Raphinha | Barcelona | 11 | 19 | 0.58 |
| 7 | B. Iglesias | Celta | 11 | 25 | 0.44 |
| 7 | Lewandowski | Barcelona | 11 | 23 | 0.48 |
| 10 | De Frutos | Rayo | 10 | 25 | 0.40 |
| # | Player | Team | A | Apps |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yamal | Barcelona | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Fermín López | Barcelona | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | Luis Milla | Getafe | 8 | 27 |
| 2 | Arda Güler | Real Madrid | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Pedri | Barcelona | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | F. Valverde | Real Madrid | 7 | 27 |
| 7 | Rashford | Barcelona | 6 | 23 |
| 7 | Dani Olmo | Barcelona | 6 | 23 |
| 7 | Edu Expósito | Espanyol | 6 | 26 |
| 10 | G. Simeone | Atlético | 5 | 27 |
xG = expected goals scored · xGA = expected goals against · xPTS = expected points. Delta = gap between expected and actual (positive = underperforming attack / overperforming defense).
| Pos | Team | PTS | xG | Δ xG | xGA | Δ xGA | xPTS | Δ xPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 70 | 81.62 | +4.62 | 39.16 | +11.16 | 61.11 | -8.89 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 66 | 65.19 | +5.19 | 33.29 | +9.29 | 58.88 | -7.12 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 57 | 50.90 | +3.90 | 32.94 | +7.94 | 49.46 | -7.54 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 55 | 49.94 | -1.06 | 39.45 | +6.45 | 46.89 | -8.11 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 44 | 47.54 | +4.54 | 35.77 | +0.77 | 46.86 | +2.86 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 41 | 38.96 | +0.96 | 38.25 | +7.25 | 40.30 | -0.70 |
| 7 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 44.33 | +1.33 | 42.32 | +0.32 | 42.28 | +4.28 |
| 8 | Espanyol | 37 | 41.62 | +6.62 | 44.99 | +2.99 | 35.39 | -1.61 |
| 9 | Getafe | 35 | 23.88 | +0.88 | 35.57 | +5.57 | 30.32 | -4.68 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 35 | 43.35 | +13.35 | 33.92 | -6.08 | 44.35 | +9.35 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 34 | 35.71 | +2.71 | 40.16 | +5.16 | 35.21 | +1.21 |
| 12 | Girona | 34 | 39.40 | +8.40 | 50.72 | +7.72 | 32.94 | -1.06 |
| 13 | Valencia | 32 | 38.00 | +8.00 | 42.03 | +0.03 | 38.08 | +6.08 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 31 | 39.51 | +12.51 | 39.94 | +6.94 | 37.74 | +6.74 |
| 15 | Sevilla | 31 | 30.55 | -6.45 | 50.01 | +3.01 | 25.97 | -5.03 |
| 16 | Mallorca | 28 | 32.74 | -0.26 | 50.77 | +5.77 | 27.14 | -0.86 |
| 17 | Alavés | 28 | 38.97 | +12.97 | 41.01 | +3.01 | 36.61 | +8.61 |
| 18 | Elche | 26 | 35.50 | -0.50 | 54.87 | +9.87 | 29.41 | +3.41 |
| 19 | Levante | 22 | 38.31 | +9.31 | 51.88 | +6.88 | 28.32 | +6.32 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 21 | 30.17 | +12.17 | 49.14 | +5.14 | 26.81 | +5.81 |
Güler’s 68-Meter wonder Goal is the goal of the weekend, and keeps Real Madrid trending upward
Real Madrid beat Elche 4-1 with Rüdiger, Valverde, and Huijsen all on the scoresheet, but the story of the match, beyond the form Arbeloa’s men are hitting, was Arda Güler’s 89th-minute goal from inside his own half. The goal was recorded officially 68.6 meters out (76 feet), the longest goal in La Liga in 15 seasons! After Barcelona beat Sevilla at home later in the weekend, Real Madrid continue to be four points behind the Cules, with 10 games to go. When it comes to Arda, the Turkish winger has had a difficult few months, but he is certainly one of the bannermen of the new, younger, press-first-ask-questions-later Real Madrid. Whether this vibe continues when Mbappe and Bellingham come back to the starting eleven we are yet to see; but for now, Arbeloa gets to build on a great week.
Barcelona wins, Laporta dances, and Sevilla keeps being Sevilla
Barcelona had several causes for celebration this Sunday. First, the Camp Nou opened another section of the stadium after getting the green light from inspectors, which means the potential for capacity is now at 62,500; close to 57k of those seats were full last night. In the guts of the stadium, voting tables were set up as the Socios selected their new President, which ended up being their old one. Laporta won handsomely (over 60% of the votes), and danced, shouted, and very likely partied well into the night. As it is always the case, good performance on the pitch is the main reason voters decide who leads, and this time around, no financial lever, stadium woe, or even Xavi’s explosive interview last week, coming out against Laporta, changed that. To top it all off, Barcelona got rid of Sevilla after 20 minutes, through a 5-2 match in which plenty of stars like Garcia, Torres, Casado, Yamal, or Fermin did not even start. Gavi also came back after his long term injury, which is good for Barcelona and the Spanish National Team. Sevilla continues his odyssey seven-match ban to manager Almeyda included, and are now five points away from relegation.
Athletic Are creating the 4th-most chances in La Liga…they also can’t score.
Athletic Club have an Expected Goals (xG) number of 43.35. That is higher than Real Betis, Celta, Real Sociedad, Espanyol, and almost every other mid-table team. On chance quality alone, they should be competing for Europe; however, finishing is where most of their troubles are. The Williams brothers have featured sporadically, with Nico still stuck in injury purgatory. After exiting the Cup in the semifinals by way of the Basque derby and a decent UCL performance, the focus is now on getting back to the top seven, which will likely render European football next season. This week against Girona they generated 1.97 xG and still came out empty in a 3-0 defeat against a much more efficient team. If things don’t improve when it comes to scoring, Athletic could end the season in mid-table mediocrity. And if that is the case, I think they can wave goodbye to Nico Williams ocver the summer.
In theory, Barcelona cruised to a 5-2 win and is starting to see the finish line towards the title, with a combination of great individual performances and a sturdy defense. However, the xG table tells another story. One headline, two words: Joan Garcia. The Catalan goalkeeper has been one of the main reasons Barcelona is outperforming its expected points by nine; if you look at goals against, it gets even better. Joan has conceded 11 fewer goals than he should have. Even if you’re not a fan of xG datasets, if you have seen Barcelona play, you know for a fact that in most games, Joan Garcia stops one, two, or more clear cut chances. This performance is in my opinion likely unsustainable. I expect Barcelona to trip a couple of times in La Liga, especially as the UCL knock-out rounds get tougher. Whether Real Madrid will take advantage of the situation, with double-digit injuries and knee deep in its own UCL homework, time will tell.
This Week: Alavés 1–1 Villarreal
MD28 · Fri 13 Mar · Mendizorroza
The debate has been served for weeks in Vila-real, but others outside are finally catching on to it: Villarreal is more effective than spectacular. The Yellow Submarine, known in other eras for a style of play which could remind of Barcelona or Spain’s flow, is currently well known (and one of the best in La Liga) as a team that sits back, creates space behind the opposition’s defense, and aggressively deploys forward. It has been working as Marcelino is on track for the best season ever in La Liga (current record is 77 points); however, some fans are not happy. People in overperforming teams often get used to being top four quickly, and eventually demand you play better, win trophies, or dream bigger. Just ask Unai Emery when he was in Valencia. The numbers back that story up, and at Mendizorroza both teams played with what they had. With a combined Expected Goals of less than 1, they both managed to score. For a full breakdown of the match, read my match report here.
Villarreal are scoring exactly what their chance quality suggests. Alberto Moleiro (xG 5.07, actual 9 goals — overperforming by nearly 4) and Georges Mikautadze (xG 10.30, actual 8 — underperforming by 2.30) cancel each other out; but the defense is overperforming. Luiz Júnior, who Villarreal fans are growing tired of as the Brazilian goalkeeper makes mistakes in what should be easy saves, has played 25 games in La Liga; his numbers suggest a goalkeeper performing well above the baseline, as Villarreal has conceded 6.5 goals less than they should have when looking at xGA.
Regardless of how, Villarreal is fourth, and Betis far away still after drawing Celta at home over the weekend. Marcelino’s performance should be praised, but when you read what people say, it appears as though a handshake and a “see you later” could come in the summer between the manager and President Roig. In my opinion, Marcelino is making this team overperform in La Liga, which is the club’s financial bread and butter; and for the first time ever, Villarreal is poised to enjoy consecutive UCL qualifications. He should stay. Nobody is playing “well” in soccer these days.
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